Strategic Thinking or the Lack of It - Hurricane Katrina and the Levee System

New Orleans is surrounded by water-Lakelevel. Strategic Thinking involves the capability to
Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River, and the Gulf ofdevelop scenarios that paint a picture of the future. It
Mexico. The city rests an average of six feet belowinvolves constant attention and observation to the
sea level and the city's safety has long depended ontrends, patterns, and cycles that are going on around
one of the world's most extensive levee systems.us continually and allow us to gather intelligence. Being
On August 29, 2005 at 11:00 a.m., the eye of Hurricanevigilant, a person is able to make educated and
Katrina came ashore near the Louisiana-Mississippireasonable predictions about the future. With this
border. The storm's strongest winds were about 125understanding the individual can be ahead of the curve
miles an hour. Katrina's front-right quadrant, whichand chart a course to advance, improve, prepare or
contained its strongest winds and peak storm surge,protect the individual or organization for future events.
slammed the coast line causing a major levee in NewOnce you have outlined a course, the key then is to
Orleans to fail and water poured through the 17thmobilize and sustain an effort to reach your target
Street Canal and the city began to flood.objective. Hurricane Katrina taught us all a powerful
During interviews after Katrina hit New Orleans, Lt.lesson of how important it is to become more
Gen. Carl Strock, chief of engineers for the Armystrategic and pro-active.
Corps said, "It was fully recognized by officials that weBeing a strategic thinker means having to take smart
had Category Three [hurricane] level of protection. Asrisks. It might mean having to go against the tide
projections of Category Four and Five were madesometimes. It means that we might not have an
(for Katrina), officials began plans to evacuate the city.immediate payoff in order to reap the rewards of a
We were just caught by a storm whose intensityfuture event. Had anyone been willing and courageous
exceeded the protection that we had in place."enough to call for improved levees and to take more
Was there an opportunity for the City of New Orleans,measures to prepare against the worst probable
the State of Louisiana, and for the federal governmentscenario, then thousands of people would not be
to have avoided this situation? Had anyone of thesedestitute and homeless. Billions of dollars would have
groups taken the time to strategically consider thebeen saved.
possibilities if a hurricane greater than a category threeWhile many fingers' can be pointed at different people
made landfall and what might happen with the currentor agencies or organizations for the failure of the
levee system? If none of these groups were thinkinglevee system, the key now is to take a more
about it, strategic thinker Joel Bourne was. In Octoberpro-active and strategic approach to other obvious
2004, National Geographic published an article titledproblems that exist.
Gone with the Water by Joel K. Bourne, Jr. This articleWhen it comes to the future of Hurricanes, we are all
was published almost a year before Katrina hit, whichready seeing many projections. Forecasters predict
brought reality to Bourne's insightful doomsdaythe Atlantic seaboard could be in for decades of
hurricane scenario for New Orleans. This is a textbookrelentless pounding and that this last year was only the
example of being ahead of the curve.beginning. So, while many organization, agencies, and
During the interviews after Katrina about the state ofgovernments should be taking action, so should any
Louisiana's efforts to maintain the levee system, Lt.individual who could be involved in this process.
Gen. Carl Strock dismissed suggestions that recentIn our mind, Strategic Thinking is something everyone
federal funding decreases or delayed contracts forcan and should be doing. Strategic Thinking is not
levee improvement had any impact on leveereserved for a CEO, Corporate Executive Team, or
performance in the face of Katrina's overwhelminghigh-level political leaders. Applied Strategic Thinking is
force. Instead he pointed to a danger that many publicabout each person taking a more creative, pro-active,
officials had warned about many years earlier, whichand intelligent approach to the future. An approach that
was that the levee system was never designed towill help the individual arrive to a strategic position that
withstand a storm of Katrina's strength.will bring success against the changing times and
Had any of these groups truly thought strategically andsituations that they will face in the future.
used their strategic intelligence sources about theSo you need to ask yourself some questions.
levee system, then they would have spent more time- What are the forecasters in your individual world
preparing for what CMOE calls "the worst probabletelling you?
scenario." This means as a strategic thinker, you- Are you being warned of future storms, or does the
consider both the positive and negative outcomes thatfuture look bright and promising?
may come as you develop your strategic ideas. We- What data have you been able to collect during the
caution people to not spend time thinking about thecourse of this year that has given you intelligence for
"worst possible scenario" because this opens up thehow to improve the next year? Two years, or even
process to anything, because "anything" is possible.further out?
We instead teach people to focus on what is most- Are you taking into account what are the most
probable. Probability means that there is a likelihoodprobable scenarios for your personal strategic
that it will happen and therefore it should be included ininitiatives?
your strategic preparation.As you are contemplating your future in work, life,
Through in-depth research and analysis of Strategicfamily, and other areas, you can be more forward
Thinking, CMOE has found a way to go beyond thethinking and do things today that will provide
normal broad organizational, government or corporateadvantages in the future; things that will put you Ahead
strategy and bring Strategic Thinking to the individualof the Curve.