| New Orleans is surrounded by water-Lake | | | | level. Strategic Thinking involves the capability to |
| Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River, and the Gulf of | | | | develop scenarios that paint a picture of the future. It |
| Mexico. The city rests an average of six feet below | | | | involves constant attention and observation to the |
| sea level and the city's safety has long depended on | | | | trends, patterns, and cycles that are going on around |
| one of the world's most extensive levee systems. | | | | us continually and allow us to gather intelligence. Being |
| On August 29, 2005 at 11:00 a.m., the eye of Hurricane | | | | vigilant, a person is able to make educated and |
| Katrina came ashore near the Louisiana-Mississippi | | | | reasonable predictions about the future. With this |
| border. The storm's strongest winds were about 125 | | | | understanding the individual can be ahead of the curve |
| miles an hour. Katrina's front-right quadrant, which | | | | and chart a course to advance, improve, prepare or |
| contained its strongest winds and peak storm surge, | | | | protect the individual or organization for future events. |
| slammed the coast line causing a major levee in New | | | | Once you have outlined a course, the key then is to |
| Orleans to fail and water poured through the 17th | | | | mobilize and sustain an effort to reach your target |
| Street Canal and the city began to flood. | | | | objective. Hurricane Katrina taught us all a powerful |
| During interviews after Katrina hit New Orleans, Lt. | | | | lesson of how important it is to become more |
| Gen. Carl Strock, chief of engineers for the Army | | | | strategic and pro-active. |
| Corps said, "It was fully recognized by officials that we | | | | Being a strategic thinker means having to take smart |
| had Category Three [hurricane] level of protection. As | | | | risks. It might mean having to go against the tide |
| projections of Category Four and Five were made | | | | sometimes. It means that we might not have an |
| (for Katrina), officials began plans to evacuate the city. | | | | immediate payoff in order to reap the rewards of a |
| We were just caught by a storm whose intensity | | | | future event. Had anyone been willing and courageous |
| exceeded the protection that we had in place." | | | | enough to call for improved levees and to take more |
| Was there an opportunity for the City of New Orleans, | | | | measures to prepare against the worst probable |
| the State of Louisiana, and for the federal government | | | | scenario, then thousands of people would not be |
| to have avoided this situation? Had anyone of these | | | | destitute and homeless. Billions of dollars would have |
| groups taken the time to strategically consider the | | | | been saved. |
| possibilities if a hurricane greater than a category three | | | | While many fingers' can be pointed at different people |
| made landfall and what might happen with the current | | | | or agencies or organizations for the failure of the |
| levee system? If none of these groups were thinking | | | | levee system, the key now is to take a more |
| about it, strategic thinker Joel Bourne was. In October | | | | pro-active and strategic approach to other obvious |
| 2004, National Geographic published an article titled | | | | problems that exist. |
| Gone with the Water by Joel K. Bourne, Jr. This article | | | | When it comes to the future of Hurricanes, we are all |
| was published almost a year before Katrina hit, which | | | | ready seeing many projections. Forecasters predict |
| brought reality to Bourne's insightful doomsday | | | | the Atlantic seaboard could be in for decades of |
| hurricane scenario for New Orleans. This is a textbook | | | | relentless pounding and that this last year was only the |
| example of being ahead of the curve. | | | | beginning. So, while many organization, agencies, and |
| During the interviews after Katrina about the state of | | | | governments should be taking action, so should any |
| Louisiana's efforts to maintain the levee system, Lt. | | | | individual who could be involved in this process. |
| Gen. Carl Strock dismissed suggestions that recent | | | | In our mind, Strategic Thinking is something everyone |
| federal funding decreases or delayed contracts for | | | | can and should be doing. Strategic Thinking is not |
| levee improvement had any impact on levee | | | | reserved for a CEO, Corporate Executive Team, or |
| performance in the face of Katrina's overwhelming | | | | high-level political leaders. Applied Strategic Thinking is |
| force. Instead he pointed to a danger that many public | | | | about each person taking a more creative, pro-active, |
| officials had warned about many years earlier, which | | | | and intelligent approach to the future. An approach that |
| was that the levee system was never designed to | | | | will help the individual arrive to a strategic position that |
| withstand a storm of Katrina's strength. | | | | will bring success against the changing times and |
| Had any of these groups truly thought strategically and | | | | situations that they will face in the future. |
| used their strategic intelligence sources about the | | | | So you need to ask yourself some questions. |
| levee system, then they would have spent more time | | | | - What are the forecasters in your individual world |
| preparing for what CMOE calls "the worst probable | | | | telling you? |
| scenario." This means as a strategic thinker, you | | | | - Are you being warned of future storms, or does the |
| consider both the positive and negative outcomes that | | | | future look bright and promising? |
| may come as you develop your strategic ideas. We | | | | - What data have you been able to collect during the |
| caution people to not spend time thinking about the | | | | course of this year that has given you intelligence for |
| "worst possible scenario" because this opens up the | | | | how to improve the next year? Two years, or even |
| process to anything, because "anything" is possible. | | | | further out? |
| We instead teach people to focus on what is most | | | | - Are you taking into account what are the most |
| probable. Probability means that there is a likelihood | | | | probable scenarios for your personal strategic |
| that it will happen and therefore it should be included in | | | | initiatives? |
| your strategic preparation. | | | | As you are contemplating your future in work, life, |
| Through in-depth research and analysis of Strategic | | | | family, and other areas, you can be more forward |
| Thinking, CMOE has found a way to go beyond the | | | | thinking and do things today that will provide |
| normal broad organizational, government or corporate | | | | advantages in the future; things that will put you Ahead |
| strategy and bring Strategic Thinking to the individual | | | | of the Curve. |